Discussions during the second day of the Diplomatic Seminar focused on the problems of different macro-regions. Dr. Vasily Kashin, Leading Research Fellow at the Center of Strategic Problems of Northeast Asia, SCO and BRICS, Institute of Far Eastern Studies RAS, Head of the Sector for International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE and RIAC member, opened the event with his lecture "Major conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region: Reasons and opportunities for resolution".
The event continued with discussion "Countries of South Caucasus and Central Asia: Major centers of tension" with the participation of top experts from the region. Dr. Alexey Tokarev, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University of Russia, served as a moderator and an expert during the discussion. He shared information about his PhD thesis where he had presented a mathematical model of probability of successful secessions of the countires of South Caucasus with the support of Russia.
"The defeat of China in the Taiwan issue can result in the most serious problems within the country. Today, Beijing is intensifying political work in that area and military preparedness to return to the island if political tools fail. We should mention that the US has the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which envisages providing military support to the island. At the same time, there are no doubts about shifting of the military balance in the region towards China. Resolution of the conflict around the island with consideration of all the factors is quite complicated", stated the expert.
"The Karabakh secession will be one of the most successful ones. The main foundation of that secession is ethnicity. Nowhere, except for Karabakh, the ethnic factor is realize in such a way. The conflict continues beyond that territory".
Expert from Georgia, Professor of European University and Research Fellow at the Institute of Global Problems Studies in Tbilisi Giorgy Gobronidze also participated in the discussion:
"Nagorno-Karabakh is an interesting region and a geopolitical trap. It serves as a crossroads for regional and extraregional actors and is an identifier in the questions of the Armenian and Azerbaijani conflict. It played an important role in the development of the nation and further emergence of the state. The main actor in the region is Russia. After the military conflict of 2020, the power landscape started changing with the Russian military presence."
Andrey Chebotarev, Director of the Center for Contemporary Studies "Alternativa", told about the current situation in Kazakhstan during the discussion:
"Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are two established states, which cannot be said about Kyrgyzstan, where the third government is being changed as a result of the colour revolution. Tajikistan has the Pamir factor. Turkmenistan is so closed that we do not know what is happening there. To some extent, the situation in the countries of the region has been stabilizing due to a strong labour migration when the protesting mass moves beyond the borders of the country.
Afghanistan remains a headache for the countries of Central Asia, There is a certain outflow of citizens from the countries of Central Asian to Afghanistan, then to Syria and Iraq. It is a serious threat since people can come back and start heading military extremist underground movements."
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