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The 11th Dialogue in the Name of the Future. Day 1: About the new world order and the era of turmoil

Program of the Gorchakov Fund “The 11th Dialogue in the Name of the Future” has opened in Moscow. This year, participants and experts of the Dialogue will analyze trends of events development in the international arena comparing discussion agendas of 2011 and 2021. "It is useful from time to time to look at our old plans in order to see if we were right or not ", said Executive Director of the Gorchakov Fund Leonid Drachevsky about the current Dialogue.

Yesterday, on November 30, the program was opened by a traditional meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During an open part of the discussion, the head of the Foreign Service of Russia thanked the attendees of the Dialogue in the Name of the Future for their interest in establishing "truly multilateral, partnership cooperation" and briefly covered important aspects of the Russian foreign policy and existing problems of the global agenda:

"Efforts made by the West to preserve its hegemony at any cost come into conflict with the objective course of history. There are China, India, Brazil, growth centers in Africa, in the countries of Latin America and Asia. A multipolar world order is being formed where several centers of economic growth, financial power and political influence will exist. Not taking that objective trend into consideration means going against the natural course of history."

Please read a full text of the speech on the website of the ministry or watch it on the website of the Fund.

The agenda of the thematic sessions was opened by discussion" Power challenges: What will the world order be like?". The participants discussed prospects of creating a universal world order, risks of emergence of global conflicts under the new conditions and certain issues of architecture of the current system of international relations:

"The global economy is slowing down, and the time of very dangerous competition among large countries, IT giants, non-governmental and governmental actors has come, – believes member of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Director General of Sputnik Asset Management Alexander Losev. – An antagonistic game in all areas is starting where a gain of some is a loss of others. That is why there are those countries in that game, which will be able to at least keep under control their economy, information space, resources and have a chance to participate in development of the new world order. Those countries, which at the preliminary stage will not be able to cope with the control and create a serious alliance to protect their economy, law and their field of interests, might cease to exist."

Alexander Rahr, political scientist and Academic Director of the German-Russian Forum, analyzed the state of relations between countries and integration associations in Eurasia:

"Russia has begun developing its Eurasian space and protects its interests on its territory. The European Union does not want to split Europe into two parts and has chosen wrong tactics – to completely ignore the EAEU pretending it does not exist in order not to allow Russia to become a strong player in the region. That is why the idea about the common space from Lisbon to Vladivostok is flying somewhere in the air, but nobody is pursuing that concept."

What are main approaches today to resolve security problems? Where do major challenges to stability come from? Is collective responsibility for the future possible? A discussion about difficulties of providing strategic stability  in the era of international turmoil continued the agenda of the 11th Dialogue in the Name of the Future.

Anton Khlopkov, Director of the Center for Energy and Security Studies, Editor-in-Chief of the Nuclear Club journal, analyzed the present state of cooperation between Moscow and Washington on the issues of arms control:

"The only bilateral document regulating issues of nuclear deterrence that had survived until the Biden's Administration, was New START, which was to expire on February 3, 2021. Its extension for five years has become one of the first joint decisions by Russia and the U.S. under the new U.S. president. Thus, Russia and the United States, which possess the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, can hold in-house negotiations and try to find a new formula in the area of arms control."

Expert from Germany Dr. Hanna Notte, Senior Research Associate at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, shared views of Berlin on the problems discussed:

"Germany will continue to see the arms control as a process where the U.S. and Russia should come to agreements, but Germany, most likely, will not take any decisive steps. Overall, the German government is trying to move towards nuclear disarmament and at the same time do something related to containment. The Germany's coalition agreement is sending us a signal that the role of NATO in providing nuclear deterrence remains to be a centra one."