A dead end of globalization? Alexey Fenenko is summarizing results of the year in foreign politics
A meeting of the Gorchakov Club has ended in Moscow. One of its brightest moments was a speech by senior research fellow at the RAS Institute of International Security Issues and Associate Professor of the Faculty of World Politics at the Lomonosov Moscow State University Alexey
“It is somewhat easier to analyze results of the outgoing year than of the last year. In 2015, new trends in foreign politics were still in the process of development and crystallization. In the end of 2016, much can be said already about the established trends. They will define a vector of development of foreign affairs during, at least, the following three years.
A triple defeat of the globalization project can be considered as a key event of the outgoing year. The first one was Brexit – a victory of supporters of Great Britain’s exit from the European Union at the referendum. During the past 30 years European integration seemed to be irreversible. In fact, it had served as a “globalization model”: as a process of building a new multicultural community, within which a state delegates some of its authority to supranational institutions. Now its vector has been placed in doubt. Results of the referendum have become a natural ending of the “neo-imperialist” policy by the Cabinet of D. Cameron with its focus on restoration of the superpower status by Great Britain.
The second defeat of the globalization was the victory of Donald Trump at the presidential elections in the U.S. The issue is not event in the policy, which Mr. Trump will pursue after his arrival in the White House in January of 2017. What is more important is that Trump promised to review foreign trade agreements of the U.S. with its partners – to give up negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, transform the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Millions of Americans voted for the candidate, who had promised to review one the basic principle of the foreign policy strategy of the U.S. – advancement of a free trade system.
A full text of the speech in Russian can be found here